PREDICTION MODELS FOR THE AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE URD OF SARGUJA DISTRICT OF CHHATTISGARH

A. Sahu, M.L. Lakhera and K.K. Pandey*

Department of Agril. Statistics, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidhyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh

Received-20.11.2015, Revised-27.11.2015

Abstract: Three models have been used for the study of trend analysis of the Urd for the Sarguja district. Linear Quadratic and Exponential Models has been used for Sarguja district. Present study period was 1979-80 to 2012-13, which divided into three group i.e. period- I, period-II and period-III. The value of R² indicates the efficiency of the models and the forecasted value indicates the accuracy of the models. CGR (%), CV (%) and Instability Index have been calculated for the respective periods and all three models. The studies are very necessary not only for understanding the growth trends and magnitude of fluctuations in crop production, but are also useful for scientific planning and effective implementation of agricultural developmental at different levels.

Keywords: CGR, CV, Exponential, Linear and Quadratic Models and Instability Index, etc.

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